When the advertising for "Earlybird Airfares" for Business Class to the UK / Europe comes out in full force, it's a good time to reflect on the changes we have seen in Earlybird pricing, and to share our observations on the best time to book Business Class Flights to the UK and Europe.
In 2017 Qatar Airways made a real impact on the New Zealand market for Business Class airfares to the UK / Europe. As I met with Commercial Managers and Representatives of the major airlines, it didn't take long before Qatar Airways was mentioned. This additional competition (which followed competition from airlines like China Southern and Etihad and improved offerings from Thai Airways) seemed to result in a structural change in how the traditional "Earlybird Season" unfolded.
Our past experience was that Earlybird seasons would start with what I described as the "resetting of discounts to the lowest levels for the upcoming season". From that low point, the lead-in prices progressively increased as we reached peak travel periods.
During 2018 however we saw a change: Lead-in prices stopped going up and settled at a level that each airline appeared to believe represented fair relative value for their product and service. Ad hoc specials with price increases appear to have been replaced with "Rolling Specials" with less frequent price changes.
In this Rolling Specials environment, discounted lead-in Business Class airfares are more frequently in the market and are more likely to "rollover" into a replacement special after they expire. Lead-in price increases are more likely to reflect inflation and the price of oil.
Prior to 2018 we could face extended periods without Business Class Specials to the UK / Europe available. After a break, a new special would be released with an increased lead-in price as we got closer to peak periods. Air New Zealand, Singapore Airlines and Qantas remain the main exceptions to the Rolling Specials observation as we do still see (comparably) extended periods without specials from them.
Airlines appear to be placing greater focus on controlling pricing though the availability of particular Business Class booking class on a flight rather than changing the base price. Prices will still therefore be determined by the availability of the lead-in booking class on your preferred dates. If that lead-in price isn't available, you are likely to be paying more (we go into this point in more detail in our blog on Planning Ahead for Discounted Business Class Airfares).
What does this mean for Earlybird Travel?
Rolling specials do provide greater confidence as to the cheapest Business Class price potentially available. The challenge is not being lulled into a false sense that you can put off booking - if the lead-in fares have sold out on the flight that works best for you, airfares on your preferred travel dates will be more expensive. Planning ahead, and committing when you can remains the best policy.